Following along, it's always interesting to see how these more major milestones are publicized and discussed.
It seems almost comical that they would even say 'we've reduced the end-end time by about 7 minutes and now ridership is expected to double'. I doubt anyone, especially the project team, believes anything akin to that.
However, I am happy if the MTA is willing to make up any excuse so that they can ultimately say 'we all know we massively under predicted ridership count but as we begin to actually put the design together, we're going to inflate the number as much as possible'.
Without doing much work on my own, I have a tendency to side with the transportation engineering professor and the general vibe that the only major and convenient link between the 2 densest and growing parts of the largest metropolitan area in United States will very quickly begin operating at/above whatever capacity it is designed / can handle.
That 254k number is likely an overestimate, as it assumes 100% of trips that would benefit from switching to the IBX do so, but that's obviously not the case. Another independent study using FTA STOPS software found, with the old running time, 160k with 5 min peak headways, and with 2 min peak headways and 3-5 min off-peak headways it went up to 200k. Of course these all assume no TOD either. So I think the MTA's 160k is reasonable, and if they automate it and run higher frequencies all day, 200k should be reached. I think the 254k number will only be reached after more TOD, which will hopefully happen, but might take longer to grow.
Transit Oriented Development (TOD) could lead to a big increase in use of the IBX line over current projections. I have seen talk of as many as 70,000 housing units.
If you can, please provide a cite to the "independent study using FTA STOPS software," which you mention, or provide a contact, or send me a copy at bqrail@earthlink.net.
Really appreciate your coverage of IBX! Could the predicted faster average speed and shorter dwell times be a hint at automation of the line? Or am I reaching here, haha?
Thanks for your continued detailed coverage of this project! Your efforts are appreciated.
Following along, it's always interesting to see how these more major milestones are publicized and discussed.
It seems almost comical that they would even say 'we've reduced the end-end time by about 7 minutes and now ridership is expected to double'. I doubt anyone, especially the project team, believes anything akin to that.
However, I am happy if the MTA is willing to make up any excuse so that they can ultimately say 'we all know we massively under predicted ridership count but as we begin to actually put the design together, we're going to inflate the number as much as possible'.
Without doing much work on my own, I have a tendency to side with the transportation engineering professor and the general vibe that the only major and convenient link between the 2 densest and growing parts of the largest metropolitan area in United States will very quickly begin operating at/above whatever capacity it is designed / can handle.
That 254k number is likely an overestimate, as it assumes 100% of trips that would benefit from switching to the IBX do so, but that's obviously not the case. Another independent study using FTA STOPS software found, with the old running time, 160k with 5 min peak headways, and with 2 min peak headways and 3-5 min off-peak headways it went up to 200k. Of course these all assume no TOD either. So I think the MTA's 160k is reasonable, and if they automate it and run higher frequencies all day, 200k should be reached. I think the 254k number will only be reached after more TOD, which will hopefully happen, but might take longer to grow.
Thanks! Your comments make sense.
Transit Oriented Development (TOD) could lead to a big increase in use of the IBX line over current projections. I have seen talk of as many as 70,000 housing units.
If you can, please provide a cite to the "independent study using FTA STOPS software," which you mention, or provide a contact, or send me a copy at bqrail@earthlink.net.
Really appreciate your coverage of IBX! Could the predicted faster average speed and shorter dwell times be a hint at automation of the line? Or am I reaching here, haha?
I hope they design the Jackson Heights terminal correctly to have in-station transfers.