Optimizing Travel Time on the IBX
By John Pegram[1]
“Riders have consistently indicated to us that travel times are a core driver of their satisfaction,” according to former NYC Transit President Richard Davey.[2] Experts have pointed out that the riders’ perceptions of travel time and the likelihood of delays may be even more important than the actual time of individual trips. Riders are likely to agree and add that—in planning trips—they have to allow for the worst case, not average times.
In this article, I will discuss factors affecting travel time and perceptions as they may affect use of the proposed Interborough Express (IBX) line in Brooklyn and Queens. One of the most practical ways to optimize travel time and perceptions would be to operate driverless IBX trains at 2½-minute headways from 6 am to midnight and at 5-minute headways from midnight to 6 am.
A Typical Trip
The two figures below illustrate the sections of a typical transit trip. The first involves a trip with two transit rides, for example, one on the IBX line and one going to or from the IBX (one transfer). The second illustrates a potentially common use of the IBX line, to connect between two other rides on a subway or bus (two transfers).
The number of ways and places in which there could be delays is particularly interesting. Note, that each transfer involves both walking and waiting.
Realities in Estimating Travel Times
My impression is that transit planners typically make average time assumptions in estimating travel times, resulting in predicted average travel times. Those assumptions do not always conform with the realities for potential riders. For example, if you are due at work or home at a specific time, relying on average travel times is likely to get you to your destination on time only 50% of the time. Fifty percent lateness is likely to get you fired by your boss or spouse.
Here are some typical assumptions of transit planners and my evaluation of corresponding realities:
For more about walkability, see the Transit Costs Project’s new article, Unlocking the IBX’s Potential.[4] Apparently taking account of street patterns and measuring times from stations (not from the tracks), the article estimates that 600K people reside within a ten-minute walk of the proposed IBX stations. That corresponds with my estimate.
Train Frequency
The easiest way to optimize total travel time for IBX riders is to increase train frequency, which can relatively easily be accomplished by use of Automatic Train Operation (ATO – driverless trains).[5]
A good example of the convenience of high train frequency is the JR Yamanote line in Tokyo. It is a 21.4-mile-long oval loop, elevated line around central Tokyo.[6] Eleven-car trains run in each direction from 4:26 am to 1:04 am the next day at intervals as short as 2 minutes during peak periods and four minutes at other times. All but two of the 30 stations have connections to other rail and/or subway lines. Because of Yamanote line train frequency, many riders commute by combining a commuter rail trip with a subway trip, connecting via the Yamanote line. There is no need to look at a schedule; just hop on the next train. (Tests are now being conducted for driverless operation on the Yamanote line, to be implemented in 2028).[7]
The only published proposal for IBX weekday Light Rail train frequency was:[8]
Any reduction in IBX headway converts directly into a reduction in maximum total trip time. A reduction in IBX headway also would result in a higher probability of connecting with an earlier train or bus at the end of the IBX trip, the exact amount of improvement depending on the headway on that other line.
It is obvious that the most time-savings can be obtained by making trains more frequent in the off-hours, when trains would ordinarily be less frequent. The need for frequent transit options at those times appears to have been underappreciated by planners. Off-hours are when highways are less congested and travel by automobile is more attractive. Long travel times by transit at night make it more likely that a person will drive both directions in an automobile. For example, night restaurant workers and restaurant workers in lower Manhattan complained about the congestion pricing proposal because the workers needed to drive cars because of poor nighttime transit.[9]
I propose ATO IBX trains at 2½-minute headways from 6 am to midnight and at 5-minute headways from midnight to 6 am. (People proposing 20-minute headways should be condemned to a life of standing on an outdoor “subway” platform at night for 20 minutes, having just missed a train, wondering if the next train will be cancelled).
One reason why more frequent, shorter trains are not used now is staffing, and delays involved in coupling and uncoupling railcars. For optimum ATO railcar utilization, IBX planners should design the equipment to permit the simplest practical procedure of coupling and uncoupling cars, so that frequent, shorter trains can be used effectively in off-hours.
Connections
Perhaps the most important step planners could take to reduce actual travel time would be to improve connections. Although that may not be easy, it should pay off in greater ridership.
I have written before about the poor IBX connections planned at Roosevelt Avenue-Jackson Heights[10] and Broadway Junction.[11] (An example of a relatively good connection between separate stations, in my opinion, is the 360 foot-long, underground passage between the G and E lines at Court Square).[12]
The published plans for the IBX line admit to the many poor proposed connections. Appendices to the MTA’s January 2023 Planning and Environmental Linkages Report (PEL Report)[13] list only ten existing subway stations as “Adjacent” to a proposed IBX station. Thirty other existing subway stations were described as “Within Walkshed,” which was defined as meaning the subway station falls within a half-mile walking distance from the IBX study corridor. An appendix explained, “Stations listed as ‘Within Walkshed’ are not close enough to the study corridor to support a direct transfer connection to new rail passenger service.”[14]
Bus-IBX connections are not discussed in the MTA IBX reports, but I am sure they can be improved, probably more easily than IBX-subway connections. Bad bus-subway connections are endemic in the NYC Transit system. For example, a potential major connection between the B44-SBS (Select Bus Service) on Nostrand and Rogers Avenues, and the 3 subway line under Eastern Parkway is not very convenient. The nearest southbound B44-SBS bus stop is north of Eastern Parkway on Nostrand Avenue, about 500 feet (= 2½ blocks) from the subway entrance, which is on the south side of Eastern Parkway. The northbound B44-SBS bus stop is about 1,300 feet (= 6½ blocks) away on Rogers Avenue.[15] Transferring riders typically must wait for at least one traffic light, cross the busy Eastern Parkway and walk outdoors to make either connection.
Perceptions
Among the excellent studies by the MTA Data & Analytics team is a February 2024 blog article, “Where is everybody on the subway going?”[16] The team’s approach to answering that question is based on the assumption that riders will use the route having the shortest “perceived time,” not the actual time for the trip. In calculating the perceived time, the article takes account of what it calls “discomfort penalties.” Those penalties are added for things that are annoying or uncomfortable: such as train crowding, having to walk a distance to transfer and waiting at the platform. I would add that weather conditions, and perceived safety on a platform or a particular walking route are other significant discomfort factors.
The MTA Data & Analytics article includes the following example as part of its explanation of an optimum trip from Columbia University to Union Square:
The discomfort penalties used in the MTA Data & Analytics article appear to be:
Waiting – 5% (3 sec./minute),
Walking – 87% (0.87 minute/minute), and
No seat – 0.92 minimum (initial disappointment) + 12% of ride time (endurance factor).
In an earlier article, Interborough Express Transfers in Jackson Heights,[17] I posted a table indicating my estimate of actual time to connect between existing subway platforms and the proposed Interborough Express platform at Roosevelt Avenue-Jackson Heights. Here is that table with the addition of the MTA Data & Analytics team’s walking discomfort penalty:
Whether you look at the actual time estimate or the perceived time estimate, the idea of making this transfer in the middle of a trip would be discouraging. An enclosed connecting passage at this location, which I suggested in my earlier article, would not only shorten the actual connection time by about 1½ minutes, but also should even more significantly improve the perceived connection time. The IBX planners should look for and adopt ways like this to minimize perceived connection times.
Conclusion
The MTA planners and their consultants should give serious consideration to optimizing travel times for potential IBX line riders, with particular attention to connections, discomfort factors and IBX train frequency.
One of the most practical ways to optimize IBX travel time and perceptions would be to operate frequent, driverless (ATO) trains.
This article expresses the personal views of the author and does not express the views of his employer, or any client or organization. The author has degrees in law and physics, and has taken several engineering courses. After five years of work as an engineer, he has practiced law primarily in the field of patents for over 50 years, dealing with a wide variety of technologies. He is a life-long railfan and user of public transportation in the United States, Europe and Japan.
As usual a PDF copy of this article is attached.
[1] © John Pegram, 2024.
[2] MTA, New York City Transit, Key Performance Metrics, November 2023, p. 5, available at https://new.mta.info/document/127471.
[3] See MTA, Interborough Express Planning & Environmental Linkages Study (Jan. 2023) (PEL Report), Appendix 1.1, pp. 2, 5-6, 12 [47, 50-51, 57/1150], available from the MTA here. See also Appendix 1.2. Citations to pages of that version, as indicated by a PDF reader, are in the form [###/1150].
[4] NYU Marron Institute, Transit Costs Project, Unlocking the IBX’s Potential (August 2024), available at https://ibx.transitcosts.com/.
[5] See BQ Rail article, Unattended Train Operation for the Interborough Express, available at https://bqrail.substack.com/p/unattended-train-operation-for-the.
[6] See Yamanote Line - Wikipedia.
[7] Id.
[8] PEL Report, Appendix 1.13, p. 6 [880/1150], available from the MTA here.
[9] See, e.g., NY Times, Why Some New York City Residents Are Suing Over Congestion Pricing, (updated May 19, 2024), available at https://www.nytimes.com/ 2024/05/16/nyregion/congestion-pricing-lawsuits.html.
[10] Interborough Express Transfers in Jackson Heights, available at https://bqrail.substack.com/p/interborough-express-transfers-in.
[11] There Should Be a Broadway Junction Station on the Interborough Express, available at https://bqrail.substack.com/p/there-should-be-a-broadway-junction; An Atlantic Avenue Entrance to the IBX Broadway Junction Station, available at https://bqrail.substack.com/p/an-atlantic-avenue-entrance-to-the.
[12] Wikipedia, Court Square–23rd Street station, available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Court_Square%E2%80%9323rd_Street_station.
[13] Supra note 3.
[14] PEL Report Appendix 1,1, pp. 12-13; Appendix to Appendix 1.2, pp. 10-11 [57-58/1150; 109-110/1150].
[15] These B44-SBS stops are apparently located for optimum connection with the B45 bus line on St. Johns Place, two blocks north or Eastern Parkway. Subway riders going to or from locations south of Eastern Parkway on Nostrand Avenue are likely to take the 2 or 4 subway line, which runs under that street, so convenience of this bus- subway connection may be significant only for riders going to or from north of Eastern Parkway.
[16] Available at https://new.mta.info/article/where-everybody-subway-going.
[17] Available at https://bqrail.substack.com/p/interborough-express-transfers-in.
5-8 minutes headways are realistically the better option for the IBX.